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Our primary services -- Financial Planning,
Asset Allocation, Investment Selection, and Ongoing Investment Management
and Advice -- are described in more detail below.
Financial
Planning
Our first step in working with you is to develop a financial plan based
on your financial and lifestyle goals, financial resources, earnings
potential and your own level of risk tolerance. In the planning process
we address questions such as:
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When do you want to
retire, or perhaps make a change of careers or level of commitment? |
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What is your baseline level of spending
and saving now, and how much flexibility might you have to consider
changes? |
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How much annual income will you need to
maintain the lifestyle you envision in your next stage(s) of life? |
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What special "one-time" large
expenditures would you like to plan for, such as college educations,
house additions, second or new homes, weddings, travel and so forth? |
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How do the key sources of investment
uncertainty -stock market returns and volatility, interest rates,
inflation, and taxation - affect your financial plan? |
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What is your level of risk tolerance?
And what does that really mean anyway? |
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How aggressive can you afford to be? How
large are the risks of equity markets? What does
"volatility" have to do with risk? |
Once we have defined your financial goals and desired lifestyle, the
central financial question is, are you on a path that can succeed in
fulfilling these desires? The answer will typically not be a simple
"yes" or "no". Uncertainty is a fact of life, no
matter how well designed your financial plan, and there are seldom any
sure things. But we can do is define your "probability of
success" as the probability that you will achieve your goals
without running out of money before you die.
A key feature of our financial planning approach is that we can compute
an actual numerical estimate of your probability of success. This will
give you an intuitive understandable way of assessing whether you are on
a realistic path to achieving your goals and desired lifestyle.
But the process involves more than computing a single answer. We will go
on to show you how changing certain key features of your plan might affect your probability of success. Some of the factors that we
commonly consider include the following:
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Your portfolio's asset allocation, especially the percentage in
equities versus fixed income |
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Your level of consumption |
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Your lifestyle plans, such as year of retirement or change of
career |
The key result of this process is a plan for how much you will earn and
save over the coming years, when you will make certain major
expenditures, when you will retire (or change course), and what level of
consumption you can maintain after that. In addition, we can estimate
the level of life insurance you need (if any), and the wealth that may
be ultimately available for your heirs or for charities.
Asset Allocation
Next we develop an investment strategy to carry out your financial plan.
The first and most important aspect of investment strategy is asset
allocation. An asset class is a class of securities that is one step
more general than specific stocks or mutual funds. Some examples of
asset classes include "micro-cap domestic equities",
"large cap international equities" and "short term fixed
income".
Asset allocation occurs at several levels. At the top level, the most
important decision by far is the split between risky and safe asset
classes. For most people this means choosing the percentage invested in
equities versus the percentage in fixed income and other less volatile
asset classes. Over long enough time periods, equities have historically
always returned more than fixed income. But sometimes "long
enough" can be more than a decade. The top-level asset allocation
decision hinges both on the investor's time horizon and on his/her
tolerance for market volatility. We may say "tolerance for market
volatility", but what this really means is having the patience and
faith to stay the course when the equity market slumps for an extended
period (such as the recent three year slump). We will discuss the
implications of this choice with you, and ultimately settle on a
solution that feels right for you.
The next level of asset allocation is to select asset classes within the
equity, fixed income and real estate portions of one's portfolio. There
is an element of investment science, as well as judgment, involved here.
Based on the correlation characteristics of the various asset classes,
we can, in theory, design a mix of asset classes that minimizes
portfolio volatility (i.e., risk) for any given level of expected
return. Such a mix is called an "efficient" portfolio.
The old adage that greater returns can be gained only by taking on
greater risk applies only to efficient - that is, fully diversified -
portfolios. Most investor portfolios are not efficient, which means it
is possible to decrease their riskiness without decreasing their
expected return, or to increase their expected return without increasing
their riskiness. The uninformed can easily take more risk without any
compensating increase in expected return. Markets provide no
compensation for risk that can be diversified away.
While portfolio "optimization" involves an element of science,
we are careful not to oversell this aspect. The results of any
mathematical portfolio optimization depend greatly on which past periods
are used to statistically calibrate the models, and the extent to which
we believe the future will be like the past. In fact, we believe that
forward looking structural models should play a more important role in
estimating future asset class returns than historical statistics. In the
end, we use a blend of informed subjective judgment, along with our
models and statistics, to guide our portfolio design.
The result of the asset allocation stage is a plan for what percentage
of each asset class will be represented in your portfolio. Among the key
portfolio dimensions we focus on are the following:
At the top level:
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Equity vs. fixed income
vs. real estate vs. (possibly) alternative investments |
Within equities:
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Domestic vs. international
equities (including Europe, the Pacific
Rim and emerging markets) |
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Large cap, small cap, micro cap equities |
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Value measures relative to growth characteristics |
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Sector weightings (e.g., technology, financials, etc) |
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Active vs. passive investment approaches |
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Classic fundamental vs.
quantitative vs. (possibly) other equity selection approaches |
Within fixed income:
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Durations (short,
intermediate, long) |
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Quality ratings
(investment grade,high yield) |
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Issuing entity (U.S.
Government, state/local governments, agencies (GNMA, FNMA),
corporate bonds) |
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Countries of origin
(domestic, foreign) |
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Inflation protection
provisions (traditional nominal bonds, TIPS) |
Within real estate
(typically using REIT mutual funds)
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Commercial sectors
(retail, offices, industrial, residential, hotels, health care,
timber, etc.) |
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Size and quality of
REIT's (market cap and yield) |
While people commonly hold too many mutual funds, they are generally
under-diversified with respect to the asset classes represented in their
portfolios. At MAM, a key feature is our inclusion of a broad range of
asset classes in our clients' portfolios, including asset classes that
are more often than not ignored or greatly under-represented by the
investing public, such as domestic micro-cap stocks, international small
caps, REIT's and inflation protected bonds.
Investment Selection
Asset allocation represents the basic structural design of
our portfolio. It tells us the generic types of securities we wish to
hold. Next we have to select the specific securities or mutual funds to
implement this design. At MAM we use mutual funds as well as individual
securities. When we select mutual funds, we are selecting full-time
money managers, who are the ones that ultimately pick the stocks and
other securities to invest in. There are now actually more mutual funds
in existence than there are individual stocks, so this is not a trivial
matter.
Our approach to picking mutual funds is based on the following
characteristics:
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Low operating expenses and turnover; no sales loads |
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Investment approach consistent with our own (e.g., buy and hold,
fundamental valuation methods, no market timing, etc.) |
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Competent managers with well articulated and consistent styles |
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Risk measures |
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Long term performance relative to others in the same asset classes |
We do not believe in "chasing performance", which means we do
not select mutual funds because they performed well in the most recent
period. Research shows convincingly that future performance of mutual
funds has almost zero correlation with past performance. (The only
exception is for the really bad performers. Apparently it is possible to
consistently under-perform.)
We do believe strongly in screening for cost. Mutual fund operating
costs vary dramatically, and these operating costs matter a great deal
more than most people realize. There is no correlation between fund
operating costs and performance, so we don't want to over-pay for active
management.
We may begin by identifying a slate of investment choices we would make
if we were devising your portfolio from scratch. But before taking any
actions, we must carefully analyze the asset allocation inherent in your
existing investment portfolio, as well as the tax ramifications for
making any changes. If there are no tax ramifications (such as in a
qualified plan), we can simply implement our ideal portfolio. But when
taxes are involved, we have to carefully analyze the relative benefits
of moving to a preferred set of investments choices versus continuing to
defer taxes. Deferring taxes is not just delaying the inevitable; it
entails a real dead weight cost. The result of our analysis is a phased
implementation plan for moving towards the desired portfolio in a way
that balances tax acceleration and investment benefits.
Ongoing Investment Management and Advice
Once an investment plan is has been placed in action, we continue to
provide the following services on an ongoing basis:
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Continual monitoring of your portfolio. With our busy lives, the
great majority of people who attempt to manage their own investment
portfolio end up doing so in a somewhat hit and miss fashion. They look
at their investments sporadically, when they happen to get to it. When
you select MAM to be your financial advisor it becomes our
responsibility to monitor your portfolio and the market environment on a
continual and systematic basis, so you don't have to worry about it. |
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Consolidated reporting. Once you sign up with MAM, you'll have
everything in your financial life pulled together in one place, managed
under a single, unified portfolio management system. Our reports will
enable you to evaluate your overall position from a comprehensive
perspective, as well as showing the specific elements. You will get
quarterly reports from us, but you can also view your accounts directly
on-line at your custodian any time you like. |
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Performance measurement. We'll help you understand how you're doing,
compared both to market benchmarks, and, more importantly, towards
meeting your own goals. |
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Disciplined rebalancing. Portfolios need to be rebalanced from time
to time for two reasons: (1) Portfolios naturally drift out of balance
relative to their asset allocation targets as different asset classes
and investments experience differential performance through time. (2) We
modify your asset allocation targets in modest increments from time to
time as our assessment of asset class valuations and prospects change.
We will automatically re-balance your portfolio to your own asset
allocation targets on a periodic basis, generally two to three times per
year.
It is worth noting that rebalancing to correct "drift" (reason
1 above) is an intrinsically contrarian discipline. It implies buying
more of the asset classes that have recently performed poorest, while
selling those that have advanced the most. This is one of the best
disciplines we know of for practicing the age-old goal of "buying
low and selling high." |
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Reviews of your financial plans and risk tolerance. We will
periodically review your financial plan with you, probably on an annual
basis. We expect changes will be incremental in nature many times, but
life situations do change - marriages, divorces, births, deaths,
illnesses, job and career changes, IPO's, inheritances, and simple
changes of heart in financial goals and plans - and we need to adjust
your financial plans and investment portfolios to incorporate any such
changes.
This is also the time for us to review our assessment of your risk
tolerance, since this can be a valid basis for altering your top-level
asset allocation. It is important that we distinguish this from fear or
exuberance about current market behavior, since changes emanating from
such emotions are really forms of "market timing", which is a
practice we eschew at MAM. |
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On-call financial advice. We are always here to field any kind of
financial questions you may have. Even if your question is not our area
of specific expertise, we will help you get the answers you need, often
by consulting with our associates in the relevant fields, or if
appropriate, by providing you with direct access to them. Examples of
such associates include estate planning attorneys, CPA's, insurance
specialists, mortgage brokers and retirement plan specialists. |
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Someone you can trust. In the final analysis, trust is the most
important aspect of a client-financial advisor relationship. This is a
key question to ask references about a potential financial advisor. With
MAM, you will have someone you can trust to help you manage and watch
over your financial affairs on a continuing basis. |
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